F

Advance Auto Parts Inc. — Earnings Quality Grade F

AAP · Consumer Cyclical

Major red flags

Revenue
$8.6B
2025
Net Income
$44M
2025
Gross Margin
43.4%
Free Cash Flow
-$298M
01

Screening Summary

6
Passed
8
Watch
3
Failed
-2.67
M-Score

管理层信号

最近 SEC 8-K 文件中未发现 CEO、CFO、董事会或审计负责人变动信号。
02

Financial Trends

Revenue & Net Income ($B)

Margins (%)

03

18-Point Screening

01

Revenue Quality

A1DSO Change

DSO 16 days, change -1 days YoY

A2AR vs Revenue Growth

AR growth -11.3% vs revenue growth -5.4%

A3Revenue vs CFFO

Revenue -5.4%, CFFO -154.1%. Cash follows revenue

02

Expense Quality

B1Inventory vs COGS

Inventory growth 0.9% far exceeds COGS -14.4%, margin rising. Fraud signal

!
B2CapEx vs Revenue

CapEx growth 39.2% is >2x revenue growth -5.4%

!
B3SG&A Ratio

SG&A/Gross Profit = 95.7%, exceeds 70%

!
B4Gross Margin

Gross margin swung +5.9pp (37.5% → 43.4%)

03

Cash Flow Quality

C1CFFO vs Net Income

CFFO/NI = -1.05. Only -105% of profit backed by cash

!
C2Free Cash Flow

FCF is negative ($-0.3B)

C3Accruals Ratio

Accruals ratio = 0.8%. Low accruals

!
C4Cash vs Debt

Cash $3.1B covers 60% of debt $5.2B

04

Balance Sheet Health

!
D1Goodwill + Intangibles

Goodwill+Intangibles $1.0B = 45% of equity

D2Leverage

Debt/EBITDA = 16.3x (>4x). Interest coverage = 1.2x (<2x). Financial stress

!
D3Soft Asset Growth

Other assets grew 48.6% vs revenue -5.4%

D4Asset Impairment

No write-off data

05

Acquisition Risk

!
E1Serial Acquirer FCF

FCF after acquisitions negative for 2/3 years

E2Goodwill Surge

Goodwill+Intangibles change -0% YoY. Normal

06

Manipulation Score

F1Beneish M-Score

M-Score = -2.67 (< -2.22). Unlikely manipulator

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04

Beneish M-Score

Manipulation Probability-2.67
-4.0 Clean-2.22 Grey-1.78 Danger0
0.938
DSRI
AR growing faster than revenue?
0.864
GMI
Gross margin declining?
0.94
AQI
Asset quality deteriorating?
0.946
SGI
Revenue growth rate
1.026
DEPI
Depreciation slowing?
0.99
SGAI
SG&A ratio changing?
0.0076
TATA
Accruals level
1.074
LVGI
Leverage increasing?
05

Altman Z-Score

3.14
Safe Zone
0 Distress1.102.605.0+ Safe
0.2633
Liquidity
0.3506
Cumulative profit
0.0041
Operating efficiency
0.2283
Leverage

Generated from public financial data using forensic accounting frameworks. Not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-25