评级：F — 存在重大疑点
框架：唐朝《手把手教你读财报》+ Schilit《Financial Shenanigans》+ Beneish M-Score
核心理念："财报是用来排除企业的"
数据来源：SEC EDGAR 10-K原文 + Yahoo Finance
一句话：Eversource是一家处于转型中的新英格兰公用事业——以巨大代价退出海上风电（FY2023-2025累计亏损$24.5亿），正在出售Aquarion水务子公司（FY2025计提$297M待售亏损），重新聚焦核心受管制电力和天然气配电业务。营收飙升13.8%至$13.5B，净利润翻倍以上。F评级源于结构性公用事业特征——负FCF、$135M现金对$30.1B负债——加上$798M海上风电或有负债。好消息是最坏的已经过去。
| 项目 | 结果 |
|---|---|
| ❌ 排除项 | **3** (FCF negative, cash vs debt, FCF after acquisitions negative) |
| ⚠️ 关注项 | **1** (leverage 5.5x EBITDA) |
| 已检查 | **15/18** |
| Beneish M-Score | **N/A** (数据不足) |
| Altman Z-Score | **0.63** (困境区) |
公司概况
Eversource Energy, headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts and Hartford, Connecticut, is a public utility holding company. 根据10-K年报: "We are engaged primarily in the energy delivery business through the following wholly-owned utility subsidiaries: The Connecticut Light and Power Company (CL&P), a regulated electric utility; NSTAR Electric Company, a regulated electric utility; and Public Service Company of New Hampshire (PSNH), a regulated electric utility." The company also operates natural gas distribution through Yankee Gas, NSTAR Gas, and EGMA, and water distribution through Aquarion (pending sale).
Eversource has four reportable segments: electric distribution, electric transmission, natural gas distribution, and water distribution. CL&P serves approximately 1.32 million customers in Connecticut.
利润表 (from 10-K)
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenues | $13,547M | $11,901M | $11,911M |
| Purchased Power, Gas & Transmission | $4,209M | $3,736M | $5,168M |
| Operations and Maintenance | $2,074M | $2,013M | $1,896M |
| Depreciation | $1,569M | $1,434M | $1,306M |
| Amortization | $836M | $343M | $(490M) |
| Loss on Pending Sale of Aquarion | $297M | — | — |
| **Total Operating Expenses** | **$10,559M** | **$9,492M** | **$9,511M** |
| **Operating Income** | **$2,989M** | **$2,409M** | **$2,399M** |
| Interest Expense | $1,243M | $1,111M | $855M |
| Losses on Offshore Wind | $284M | $464M | $2,167M |
| Other Income, Net | $379M | $410M | $348M |
| **Net Income/(Loss)** | **$1,692M** | **$812M** | **$(442M)** |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.56 | $2.27 | $(1.26) |
Three things stand out in this income statement:
1. Offshore wind losses are declining but not finished. Eversource sold its interests in Revolution Wind, South Fork Wind, and Sunrise Wind in Q3 2024. But the 10-K still shows $284M in offshore wind losses in FY2025, down from $464M in FY2024 and a staggering $2.167B in FY2023. The cumulative offshore wind losses from 2023-2025 total $2.915B — a catastrophic strategic misstep.
2. Amortization swung wildly — from negative $490M in FY2023 to $836M in FY2025, a $1.3B swing. This reflects regulatory amortization mechanisms, particularly storm cost recovery and energy efficiency program deferrals.
3. The Aquarion sale loss. The 10-K records a $297M loss on the pending sale of Aquarion, Eversource's water utility subsidiary. This is a strategic exit to simplify the business back to core electric and gas distribution.
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | 趋势 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 营收 | $12.3B | $11.9B | $11.9B | $13.5B | 恢复中 |
| 净利润 | $1.4B | $(442M) | $812M | $1.69B | 恢复中 from losses |
| 毛利率 | 84.8% | 84.1% | 83.1% | 84.7% | 稳定 high |
| 净利率 | 11.4% | (3.7%) | 6.8% | 12.5% | 恢复中 |
| ROE | 9.1% | (3.1%) | 5.4% | 10.4% | 正常izing |
现金流 (from 10-K)
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 净利润 | $1,700M | $819M | $(435M) |
| Depreciation | $1,569M | $1,434M | $1,306M |
| Losses on Offshore Wind | $284M | $464M | $2,167M |
| Loss on Aquarion Sale | $297M | — | — |
| **Operating Cash Flow** | **$4,114M** | **$2,160M** | **$1,646M** |
| 资本开支 | $(4,159M) | $(4,481M) | $(4,337M) |
| **自由现金流** | **$(45M)** | **$(2,321M)** | **$(2,691M)** |
| 现金余额 | $135M | $27M | $54M |
CFFO/NI of 2.43 in FY2025 — profits are well-backed by cash. The offshore wind and Aquarion losses are non-cash 减记s that inflate CFFO relative to reported 净利润. The key improvement: FCF is nearly breakeven at negative $45M, compared to negative $2.3B and $2.7B in prior years, because CapEx declined by $322M and CFFO nearly doubled.
But cash on hand is just $135M against $30.1B in 总负债. The company relies on revolving credit facilities and commercial paper for liquidity.
18项排雷检查
收入质量
| # | 检查项 | 结果 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | 应收周转天数(DSO) | ✅ 通过 | 50 days, -1 day YoY. 稳定 |
| A2 | 应收 vs 营收增速 | ✅ 通过 | AR growth 11.9% vs revenue growth 13.8% |
| A3 | 营收 vs 现金流 | ✅ 通过 | Revenue +13.8%, CFFO +90.5%. Cash follows revenue |
营收 quality 干净. The 13.8% 营收 growth was driven by higher distribution rates across CL&P, NSTAR Electric, and PSNH, plus higher purchased power pass-through costs. CFFO growth of 90.5% dramatically outpaced 营收 growth, driven by the absence of FY2024's large working capital drains and reduced offshore wind cash outflows.
费用质量
| # | 检查项 | 结果 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | 存货 | ✅ 通过 | 存货 -17.3% vs COGS +3.0%. 正常 |
| B2 | 资本开支 | ✅ 通过 | CapEx -7.2% vs revenue +13.8%. 下降中 CapEx |
| B3 | 费用率 | N/A | Utility cost structure |
| B4 | 毛利率 | ✅ 通过 | 84.7%, +1.6pp. 稳定 |
Inventory declined 17.3% — consistent with Eversource's shift away from capital-intensive offshore wind projects and the pending Aquarion sale. CapEx actually declined 7.2%, unusual for a utility, reflecting the wind-down of offshore wind investment.
现金流质量
| # | 检查项 | 结果 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | 现金流 vs 净利润 | ✅ 通过 | Ratio 2.43. Profits backed by cash |
| C2 | FCF | **❌ 未通过** | FCF negative for 2 of 3 years |
| C3 | 应计比率 | ✅ 通过 | -3.8%. Low accruals |
| C4 | 现金覆盖债务 | **❌ 未通过** | Cash $135M covers 0% of $30.1B debt |
C2: FCF has been negative for years, but dramatically improved from $(2.7B) in FY2023 to $(45M) in FY2025. If CapEx stabilizes and CFFO continues improving, Eversource may achieve positive FCF in FY2026 — a rarity among utilities.
C4: Structural for regulated utilities. Cash is minimal because utilities operate on revolving credit facilities and issue long-term debt continuously.
资产负债表
| # | 检查项 | 结果 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 商誉+无形资产 | ✅ 通过 | $4.2B = 26% of equity. Manageable |
| D2 | 杠杆率 | **⚠️ 关注** | Debt/EBITDA = 5.5x. Elevated |
| D3 | 软资产 | ✅ 通过 | Other assets -70.8%. 下降中 |
| D4 | 减值 | N/A | 无核销数据 |
D1: 商誉 increased from $3.6B to $4.2B (+$662M). The $4.2B in 商誉 relates primarily to the NSTAR and Aquarion acquisitions. If the Aquarion sale closes, the associated 商誉 will be removed.
并购与操纵风险
| # | 检查项 | 结果 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | 连续并购 | **❌ 未通过** | FCF after acquisitions negative for 3 years |
| E2 | 商誉暴增 | ✅ 通过 | Goodwill +19% YoY |
| F1 | M-Score | N/A | 数据不足 |
德勤关键审计事项s
Deloitte identified two critical audit matters:
1. Regulatory Accounting. 根据审计报告: "Judgment can be required to determine if otherwise recognizable incurred costs qualify to be presented as a regulatory asset and deferred because such costs are probable of future recovery in customer rates." Eversource had regulatory assets of $7.7B ($1.98B current + $5.72B long-term) and regulatory liabilities of $5.5B ($1.26B current + $4.27B long-term) as of December 31, 2025. The regulatory asset balance increased from $7.1B to $7.7B, reflecting ongoing cost deferrals.
2. Offshore Wind Contingent Liability. 根据10-K年报, Eversource retained a contingent liability related to the post-closing purchase price adjustment for the offshore wind project sales. The balance sheet shows $448M current and $350M long-term — totaling $798M in contingent liabilities. Deloitte flagged this as a critical audit matter because "the variability in the costs and final investment returns of the Revolution Wind and South Fork Wind offshore wind projects as it relates to the purchase price post-closing adjustment" requires significant judgment.
10-K年报中的关键风险
1. Offshore wind cost overruns. The $798M contingent liability could grow if construction costs exceed estimates. 根据10-K年报, the company faces "variability in the costs and final investment returns of the Revolution Wind and South Fork Wind offshore wind projects as it relates to the purchase price post-closing adjustment under the terms of the sale agreement."
2. Regulatory recovery risk. CL&P's distribution rates were established in 2018 with a rate freeze under a 2021 settlement. Regulatory assets require future recovery approval — if regulators deny recovery, 核销s against earnings would follow.
3. Rising 利息费用. 利息费用 grew from $855M in FY2023 to $1.24B in FY2025 (+45% over two years). With $30.1B in debt, each 25bp rate increase costs approximately $75M annually.
4. Aquarion sale regulatory denial. The 10-K discloses a regulatory denial of the Aquarion sale in one jurisdiction, leading to "a subsequent appeal." The $297M loss on pending sale reflects management's assessment of the likely sale price versus book value.
Altman Z-Score与F-Score
| Model | Score | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Altman Z-Score | **0.63** | Distress zone (<1.81). 结构性 for utilities |
| F-Score (Dechow) | **0.50** | Very 欺诈概率低 |
总结
| # | Check | Result |
|---|---|---|
| A1-A3 | Revenue Quality | ✅ 通过-✅ 通过-✅ 通过 |
| B1-B4 | Expense Quality | ✅ 通过-✅ 通过-N/A-✅ 通过 |
| C1-C4 | Cash Flow Quality | ✅ 通过-❌ 未通过-✅ 通过-❌ 未通过 |
| D1-D4 | Balance Sheet | ✅ 通过-⚠️ 关注-✅ 通过-N/A |
| E1-E2 | M&A Risk | ❌ 未通过-✅ 通过 |
| F1 | Beneish M-Score | N/A |
Grade: F — driven by structural utility factors plus offshore wind overhang.
Eversource's F grade reflects two categories of issues. First, the structural utility features common to every company in this sector: negative FCF, minimal cash versus massive debt, and leverage above 5x EBITDA. Second, the company-specific offshore wind exit, which generated $2.9B in cumulative losses and left a $798M contingent liability on the balance sheet.
The positive narrative is that the worst is behind them. Offshore wind losses have shrunk from $2.2B to $284M. FCF improved from $(2.7B) to near-breakeven. 净利润 more than doubled. The regulated utility core — 84.7% 毛利率, CFFO/NI of 2.43, stable DSO, low accruals — 健康. The question is whether the offshore wind contingent liability produces additional losses and whether the Aquarion sale closes at acceptable terms.
⚠️ **免责声明**：本报告基于Eversource Energy FY2025 10-K年报原文（SEC EDGAR）及Yahoo Finance公开财务数据，运用排雷框架进行分析，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，决策需自行判断。