Novavax, Inc. — Earnings Quality Grade F
NVAX · Healthcare
Major red flags
Screening Summary
Management Signals
Financial Trends
Revenue & Net Income ($B)
Margins (%)
18-Point Screening
Revenue Quality
DSO 35 days, change -23 days YoY
AR growth -1.7% vs revenue growth 64.7%
Revenue grew 64.7% but CFFO declined -180.3%
Small-cap context: Small-cap revenue/CFFO ratio is sensitive to growth-stage working-capital draws.
Expense Quality
Inventory growth 32.0% far exceeds COGS -64.0%, margin rising. Fraud signal
Small-cap context: Inventory ratios on a small base are noisy; a single product launch can move them sharply.
CapEx growth -56.4% vs revenue 64.7%. Normal
SG&A/Gross Profit = 15.0%, excellent (<30%)
Gross margin swung +23.2pp (70.3% → 93.5%)
Cash Flow Quality
CFFO/NI = -0.56. Only -56% of profit backed by cash
Small-cap context: Small-cap CFFO/NI often diverges from working-capital swings, not necessarily manipulation.
FCF is negative ($-0.3B)
Accruals ratio = 58.2%. Exceeds 10%
Cash $0.7B covers debt $0.2B
Balance Sheet Health
Goodwill+Intangibles $0.1B = -89% of equity. Manageable
Debt/EBITDA = 0.5x. Healthy
Other assets -28.8% vs revenue 64.7%. Normal
Write-offs normal
Acquisition Risk
FCF after acquisitions negative for 3 years
Small-cap context: A single acquisition on a small balance sheet can trip serial-acquirer logic.
Goodwill+Intangibles change 6% YoY. Normal
Manipulation Score
M-Score = 0.61 (> -1.78). LIKELY MANIPULATOR
Small-cap context: Beneish M-Score was calibrated on large-caps; small-cap DSO/inventory volatility mechanically inflates it.
Beneish M-Score
Altman Z-Score
Generated from public financial data using forensic accounting frameworks. Not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-25