F

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. — Earnings Quality Grade F

NOG · Energy

Major red flags

Revenue
$2.1B
2025
Net Income
$39M
2025
Gross Margin
32.2%
Free Cash Flow
$253M
01

Screening Summary

11
Passed
4
Watch
2
Failed
-2.66
M-Score

Management Signals

No recent CEO, CFO, board, or accounting leadership signals found in SEC 8-K filings.
02

Financial Trends

Revenue & Net Income ($B)

Margins (%)

03

18-Point Screening

01

Revenue Quality

A1DSO Change

DSO 61 days, change -5 days YoY

A2AR vs Revenue Growth

AR growth -10.2% vs revenue growth -3.2%

A3Revenue vs CFFO

Revenue -3.2%, CFFO 6.9%. Cash follows revenue

02

Expense Quality

B1Inventory vs COGS

No material inventory

B2CapEx vs Revenue

CapEx growth -25.2% vs revenue -3.2%. Normal

B3SG&A Ratio

SG&A/Gross Profit = 9.1%, excellent (<30%)

!
B4Gross Margin

Gross margin swung -6.4pp (38.6% → 32.2%)

03

Cash Flow Quality

!
C1CFFO vs Net Income

CFFO far exceeds NI (ratio 38.8x). Non-cash charges depressing profits

C2Free Cash Flow

FCF < 50% of Net Income for 2 years

C3Accruals Ratio

Accruals ratio = -27.1%. Low accruals

C4Cash vs Debt

Cash $0.0B covers only 1% of debt $2.4B

04

Balance Sheet Health

D1Goodwill + Intangibles

No goodwill. Clean balance sheet

D2Leverage

Debt/EBITDA = 2.3x. Healthy

!
D3Soft Asset Growth

Other assets grew 567.5% vs revenue -3.2%

D4Asset Impairment

No write-off data

05

Acquisition Risk

!
E1Serial Acquirer FCF

FCF after acquisitions negative for 2/3 years

E2Goodwill Surge

No goodwill

06

Manipulation Score

F1Beneish M-Score

M-Score = -2.66 (< -2.22). Unlikely manipulator

Portfolio monitoring

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04

Beneish M-Score

Manipulation Probability-2.66
-4.0 Clean-2.22 Grey-1.78 Danger0
0.927
DSRI
AR growing faster than revenue?
1.199
GMI
Gross margin declining?
3.814
AQI
Asset quality deteriorating?
0.968
SGI
Revenue growth rate
1
DEPI
Depreciation slowing?
1.255
SGAI
SG&A ratio changing?
-0.2711
TATA
Accruals level
1.043
LVGI
Leverage increasing?
05

Altman Z-Score

1.32
Grey Zone
0 Distress1.102.605.0+ Safe
0.0086
Liquidity
0.089
Cumulative profit
0.0435
Operating efficiency
0.6477
Leverage

Generated from public financial data using forensic accounting frameworks. Not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-25