F

Forestar Group Inc — Earnings Quality Grade F

FOR · Real Estate

Major red flags

Revenue
$1.7B
2025
Net Income
$168M
2025
Gross Margin
21.9%
Free Cash Flow
-$200M
01

Screening Summary

9
Passed
3
Watch
5
Failed
-2.1
M-Score

Management Signals

No recent CEO, CFO, board, or accounting leadership signals found in SEC 8-K filings.
02

Financial Trends

Revenue & Net Income ($B)

Margins (%)

03

18-Point Screening

01

Revenue Quality

A1DSO Change

DSO 4 days, change -2 days YoY

A2AR vs Revenue Growth

AR growth -28.9% vs revenue growth 10.1%

A3Revenue vs CFFO

Revenue grew 10.1% but CFFO declined -24.8%

Small-cap context: Small-cap revenue/CFFO ratio is sensitive to growth-stage working-capital draws.

02

Expense Quality

B1Inventory vs COGS

No material inventory

B2CapEx vs Revenue

CapEx growth 0.0% vs revenue 10.1%. Normal

B3SG&A Ratio

SG&A/Gross Profit = 42.5%. Normal

B4Gross Margin

Gross margin 21.9%, change -1.9pp. Stable

03

Cash Flow Quality

C1CFFO vs Net Income

CFFO/NI = -1.18. Only -118% of profit backed by cash

Small-cap context: Small-cap CFFO/NI often diverges from working-capital swings, not necessarily manipulation.

C2Free Cash Flow

FCF < 50% of Net Income for 2 years

C3Accruals Ratio

Accruals ratio = 11.7%. Exceeds 10%

C4Cash vs Debt

Cash $0.4B covers only 46% of debt $0.8B

04

Balance Sheet Health

D1Goodwill + Intangibles

No goodwill. Clean balance sheet

D2Leverage

Debt/EBITDA = 3.8x. Healthy

!
D3Soft Asset Growth

Other assets grew 861.1% vs revenue 10.1%

D4Asset Impairment

No write-off data

05

Acquisition Risk

!
E1Serial Acquirer FCF

FCF after acquisitions negative for 2/3 years

E2Goodwill Surge

No goodwill

06

Manipulation Score

!
F1Beneish M-Score

M-Score = -2.10 (grey zone)

Portfolio monitoring

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04

Beneish M-Score

Manipulation Probability-2.1
-4.0 Clean-2.22 Grey-1.78 Danger0
0.646
DSRI
AR growing faster than revenue?
1.089
GMI
Gross margin declining?
1.063
AQI
Asset quality deteriorating?
1.101
SGI
Revenue growth rate
1.189
DEPI
Depreciation slowing?
1.183
SGAI
SG&A ratio changing?
0.1165
TATA
Accruals level
0.971
LVGI
Leverage increasing?
05

Altman Z-Score

2.84
Safe Zone
0 Distress1.102.605.0+ Safe
-0.0078
Liquidity
0.3335
Cumulative profit
0.0667
Operating efficiency
1.2922
Leverage

Generated from public financial data using forensic accounting frameworks. Not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-25